Economics

Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events

Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events

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  • Create Date：2021-04-30 11:55:51
  • Update Date：2025-09-14
  • Status：finish
  • Author：Robert J. Shiller
  • ISBN：0691210268
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Summary

From Nobel Prize-winning economist and New York Times bestselling author Robert Shiller， a groundbreaking account of how stories help drive economic events--and why financial panics can spread like epidemic viruses

Stories people tell--about financial confidence or panic， housing booms， or Bitcoin--can go viral and powerfully affect economies， but such narratives have traditionally been ignored in economics and finance because they seem anecdotal and unscientific。 In this groundbreaking book， Robert Shiller explains why we ignore these stories at our peril--and how we can begin to take them seriously。 Using a rich array of examples and data， Shiller argues that studying popular stories that influence individual and collective economic behavior--what he calls narrative economics--may vastly improve our ability to predict， prepare for， and lessen the damage of financial crises and other major economic events。 The result is nothing less than a new way to think about the economy， economic change， and economics。 In a new preface， Shiller reflects on some of the challenges facing narrative economics， discusses the connection between disease epidemics and economic epidemics， and suggests why epidemiology may hold lessons for fighting economic contagions。

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Reviews

Spetsnaz26 ，

Again the message is important， perspective refreshing， but somewhat long winding in its style。

Shayan ，

ایده کتاب اینه که میگه روایت هایی که بین عامه مردم پخش میشه روی روند های اقتصادی تاثیر میذاره و تقریبا کل کتاب مثال هایی برای اثبات اونها میاره ، در اقتصاد کشور خودمون هم شاهد این نظریه به وضوح هستیم ، مثل هجوم به بورس، هجوم به ارزهای دیجیتال ، و روایت هایی مادام العمری مثل ارزش سرمایه گذاری روی خونه و زمین و غیره 。به صورت مختصر میشه فقط بخش اول و دوم کتاب رو خوند و البته پیوستش رو。کتاب پیشنهادهایی هم برای انجام پژوهش هایی در این مضمون میده که به نظرم تا سالیان دراز انجام همچین پژوهش هایی در کشو ایده کتاب اینه که میگه روایت هایی که بین عامه مردم پخش میشه روی روند های اقتصادی تاثیر میذاره و تقریبا کل کتاب مثال هایی برای اثبات اونها میاره ، در اقتصاد کشور خودمون هم شاهد این نظریه به وضوح هستیم ، مثل هجوم به بورس، هجوم به ارزهای دیجیتال ، و روایت هایی مادام العمری مثل ارزش سرمایه گذاری روی خونه و زمین و غیره 。به صورت مختصر میشه فقط بخش اول و دوم کتاب رو خوند و البته پیوستش رو。کتاب پیشنهادهایی هم برای انجام پژوهش هایی در این مضمون میده که به نظرم تا سالیان دراز انجام همچین پژوهش هایی در کشور ما انجام نخواهد شد 。。。more

Noz ，

The book is more preliminary theory than analysis or concrete framework for a new approach to economics。 The first bit is a yawn， and repetitive。 The more interesting part is the middle-end。 It’s sort of a half-baked theory （not well supported， though he knows this and says as much from the start） about how cultural/social narratives/histories shape the broader economy。 This is not unlike Soros’ concept of reflexivity， just under a more economics-as-a-discipline banner than was Soros’ theory-for The book is more preliminary theory than analysis or concrete framework for a new approach to economics。 The first bit is a yawn， and repetitive。 The more interesting part is the middle-end。 It’s sort of a half-baked theory （not well supported， though he knows this and says as much from the start） about how cultural/social narratives/histories shape the broader economy。 This is not unlike Soros’ concept of reflexivity， just under a more economics-as-a-discipline banner than was Soros’ theory-for-profit scheme。 I didn’t recognize the parallels to Soros until the end of the book， when Schiller used specific examples。 Made my scratch my head thinking it was an unsubstantiated version of Soros， so what’s the point of the book？ 。。。more

Andreas ，

Having read Irrational Exuberance （great） and Phishing for Phools （meh）， I was really glad to notice that in this book， Shiller again found a very relevant theme to address。 I think he is really onto something， and this book is a good step for economics away from the extreme "mathiness" of the neoclassical keynesian synthesis and back to psychology。 Having read Irrational Exuberance （great） and Phishing for Phools （meh）， I was really glad to notice that in this book， Shiller again found a very relevant theme to address。 I think he is really onto something， and this book is a good step for economics away from the extreme "mathiness" of the neoclassical keynesian synthesis and back to psychology。 。。。more

Jimbo ，

I really liked it， but would agree with the less favorable top comments。 It's worth reading， but isn't going to be mind blowing or groundbreaking。 I probably would have agreed with the main ideas before I started。 It's been a while since I finished it， so I can't give specifics。 A lot of the book's ideas I had heard before， like ideas spreading similar to evolution or many of the skepticism of the news and media。 I did recommended it to a couple friends。 The history and studies used as evidence I really liked it， but would agree with the less favorable top comments。 It's worth reading， but isn't going to be mind blowing or groundbreaking。 I probably would have agreed with the main ideas before I started。 It's been a while since I finished it， so I can't give specifics。 A lot of the book's ideas I had heard before， like ideas spreading similar to evolution or many of the skepticism of the news and media。 I did recommended it to a couple friends。 The history and studies used as evidence are the best part of the book。 。。。more

Roel Peters ，

This book feels very much driven by cherrypicked sources that "prove" that a particular narrative existed and drove important economic events。 Spiced with "maybes" and "mights"， the evidence is very suggestive。 I believe there's a place for narrative economics as a subfield， but I doubt this popsci book is relevant to it。 This book feels very much driven by cherrypicked sources that "prove" that a particular narrative existed and drove important economic events。 Spiced with "maybes" and "mights"， the evidence is very suggestive。 I believe there's a place for narrative economics as a subfield， but I doubt this popsci book is relevant to it。 。。。more

Alexander Dennison ，

It won’t make your “mouth drip with honey” （thank you Dead Poets Society）However， this was a profoundly intriguing book that tackles the onion which is represents our historical economic events。A book for those who are not satisfied with “Oh that’s just the stock market narrative”IePairing wheeled suitcases with an airline crew。 Real estate bubbles and Ponzi schemes。

Edouard Reinach ，

He's pretty much preaching to the choir with me。 But he's not offering the systemic framework （or theory） I was hoping to get。 He explains how stories go viral and find patterns between many， which is always easier to explain after the facts。 But doesn't provide many clues as to how one could systematically apply these findings for predictive purposes， which， I will admit， is not really the subject of his book。 But since this is an economic book， one would expect the author to go somewhat deeper He's pretty much preaching to the choir with me。 But he's not offering the systemic framework （or theory） I was hoping to get。 He explains how stories go viral and find patterns between many， which is always easier to explain after the facts。 But doesn't provide many clues as to how one could systematically apply these findings for predictive purposes， which， I will admit， is not really the subject of his book。 But since this is an economic book， one would expect the author to go somewhat deeper into this territory。 。。。more

Jack Castillo ，

Conspiracy theories have dominated the news media for some time。 This has intrigued me because some of the theories are ridiculous， and it is hard to believe anyone would give them credence。 This book helped me to understand this phenomenon。 Shiller suggests that there are a lot of similarities between disease epidemics and social and idea epidemics。 This is the first economics book I've read that is interesting and that I could follow。 I now understand how Bitcoin caught on， how QANON has becom Conspiracy theories have dominated the news media for some time。 This has intrigued me because some of the theories are ridiculous， and it is hard to believe anyone would give them credence。 This book helped me to understand this phenomenon。 Shiller suggests that there are a lot of similarities between disease epidemics and social and idea epidemics。 This is the first economics book I've read that is interesting and that I could follow。 I now understand how Bitcoin caught on， how QANON has become dangerous， and how the COVID pandemic will play out。 Shiller identifies several popular narratives: AI will take over the world， stock market crashes， real estate bubbles， etc。 I can recall having lunch with an acquaintance， and he started proselytizing on how self-driving trucks were going to cause an economic collapse。 He then outlined how this would cause a major fault-line in society and how Armaggedon would ensue。 I walked away dazed and needless-to-say never had lunch with him again。 I wish I had read this book before that lunch。 。。。more

James Chou ，

Good book to understand how narratives go viral and how they affected and caused major events。

Xi Cheng ，

The big idea is easy to get at microlevel but the macro level trend and analysis are unconvincing and superficial， e。g。 Google Ngram is used as a measure about how popular an idea is， and virus spread is used to model how ideas spread， this is loose analogy good for communication but not good for deeper understanding。

Michael ，

We all like a good story so there is value here。 Seems like there’s an over-reliance on term searches in Proquest and Google， but describing the virus-like spread of stories is very relevant in a “meme” world。

Augusto Alves ，

It's an interesting book with an intriguing premise by a first-rate economist; not much beyond that。Shiller argues that narratives are overlooked in economics， and since they affect economic behaviour， they should be included in forecasting models。 He provides some evidence and does a historical recollection of some perennial narratives to， later on， ask for further development in this field and suggest the means for it。I guess most economists （myself included） would agree with his general propo It's an interesting book with an intriguing premise by a first-rate economist; not much beyond that。Shiller argues that narratives are overlooked in economics， and since they affect economic behaviour， they should be included in forecasting models。 He provides some evidence and does a historical recollection of some perennial narratives to， later on， ask for further development in this field and suggest the means for it。I guess most economists （myself included） would agree with his general proposal。 However， that does not mean that they would accept all of his examples or concrete recommendations。 Shiller depends on few sources to extract data and uses exhausting citations of contemporary texts to prove his points; it is not the best from a scientific perspective。 Also， his suggestions are a bit far-off and do not seem immediately applicable。 All things considered 3/5 stars。 。。。more

Amirmansour Khanmohammad ，

One cannot neglect mass’s BS because it’s BS。 That BS has the potential to turn into a very strong epidemic， and forces the leaders to obey and act upon。 The correctness or falseness of BS is secondary。

Alex Beaver ，

We should study the viral stories about economic behavior spread by other people， books and newspapers because these economic narratives can be highly contagious and have substantial influence on the boom and bust cycle。

Peter De Kinder ，

Professor Robert Shiller has always been a firm believer that the efficient markets solely driven by information could not be the entire story。 This book depicts the effects that widespread narratives can have on market situa-tions with three significant examples of story driving the machinations within the market: The Great Depression， the BitCoin phenomenon and the different industrial revolutions。 The term “Narrative Economics” isn’t a new term， as it was mentioned in from R。H。 Inglis Palgrav Professor Robert Shiller has always been a firm believer that the efficient markets solely driven by information could not be the entire story。 This book depicts the effects that widespread narratives can have on market situa-tions with three significant examples of story driving the machinations within the market: The Great Depression， the BitCoin phenomenon and the different industrial revolutions。 The term “Narrative Economics” isn’t a new term， as it was mentioned in from R。H。 Inglis Palgrave’s Dicotionary of Political Economy， written in 1894。 Pro-fessor Shiller expands on its meaning by stating two elements:•tWord-of-mouth contagion of ideas distilled from stories•tConcerted efforts of creating contagious stories or increasing their efficacy。The book is an interesting read and offers some insights on how economies are steered using narratives。 It is filled with insightful examples and situations， and is an easy read。 Professor Shiller writes this as a study of events and what we can take from them， but also as a plea for more in-depth study in this field， as there is much the be gained from the collection of such narratives and their impact。More detail here: https://evolute。be/reviews/narrativee。。。 。。。more

Francesco ，

Extremely interesting book， Narrative Economics studies how the viral spread of popular narratives affects economic behavior。 Important book to understand the power of narratives， how narrative diffusion works and how incorporating popular narratives in the explanation of economic events can help policymakers to better forecast the future。

MohammadReza Jokar ，

اول از همه اگر خلاصه کتاب رو گوش ندادید از بی پلاس گوش بدید。کتاب دید جدیدی درباره اتفاقات اقتصادی میده، تمرکز کتاب بیشتر روی اتفاقات 1920 به بعد آمریکا که رکود بزرگ و ماجراهای بعد از جنگ جهانی اول اتفاق میفته هست。 گریزی هم به وایرال شدن رمزارز ها و مخصوصا بیتکوین هم میزنه که قابل بحثه。در کل به نظرم کتاب ارزش یک بار خوندن رو داره و برای مخاطبی که خیلی هم از اقتصاد نمیدونه کاملا روان هست。ترجمه سعید زرگریان از نشر آموخته رو خوندم که خیلی روون بود。اقتصاد روایی، چگونه داستان های ویروسی رخداد های بزرگ اول از همه اگر خلاصه کتاب رو گوش ندادید از بی پلاس گوش بدید。کتاب دید جدیدی درباره اتفاقات اقتصادی میده، تمرکز کتاب بیشتر روی اتفاقات 1920 به بعد آمریکا که رکود بزرگ و ماجراهای بعد از جنگ جهانی اول اتفاق میفته هست。 گریزی هم به وایرال شدن رمزارز ها و مخصوصا بیتکوین هم میزنه که قابل بحثه。در کل به نظرم کتاب ارزش یک بار خوندن رو داره و برای مخاطبی که خیلی هم از اقتصاد نمیدونه کاملا روان هست。ترجمه سعید زرگریان از نشر آموخته رو خوندم که خیلی روون بود。اقتصاد روایی، چگونه داستان های ویروسی رخداد های بزرگ اقتصادی را می سازند。17。11。1399 。。。more

Simon Proulx ，

At the corner of market in/efficiency， history and linguistics。 The NLP angle is great especially in these times of Reddit traders raiding markets。 Historical component is great especially the Silverites section。 Learned a lot。Shiller is a bit too fuzzy and academic at times。 Wish he brought more of the SIR epidemic model to specific narratives。 I guess he would blame the lack of data。 That’s fine but then shorten the book rather than bring anecdotes after anecdotes。

Aaron Terrazas ，

original， thought-provoking

Kim ，

I really enjoyed this book about how stories can drive the economy， but I would have liked more modern substance。 Many of the stories were historical in nature， with the exception of bitcoin。

Diana Suddreth ，

When a book has the power to change the way I see the world， I give it 5 stars。 Narrative economics did not only that， but also gave me so much to think about I have felt in constant thought-heaven for the past week。Shiller's point is that economics is driven by more than the traditional things we learned in school but by narratives that appear in the populace。 He considers themes in narratives like panic vs。 confidence， frugality vs。 conspicuous consumption， the American Dream， money standards When a book has the power to change the way I see the world， I give it 5 stars。 Narrative economics did not only that， but also gave me so much to think about I have felt in constant thought-heaven for the past week。Shiller's point is that economics is driven by more than the traditional things we learned in school but by narratives that appear in the populace。 He considers themes in narratives like panic vs。 confidence， frugality vs。 conspicuous consumption， the American Dream， money standards and labor vs。 tech。 He shows how these spiked in literature at certain times in history and have a lot to tell us about our evolving thinking about cycles of boom and bust。 He ties his theories to those in epidemiology， particularly past epidemics。 Reading this book， published in 2019， during the midst of the coronavirus pandemic brought even more to think about that the narrative Shiller captured in these pages。 Using Shiller's hypotheses as a launch board has given me a new way to look at the economy in the COVID-19 world and new wonderings about what will come next during the Biden presidency。I love reading a book that is worthy of talking about at the dinner table。 This one certainly is。 。。。more

Steven Siswandhi ，

An unusual book。 I started this last year and didn't understand， what's the point of writing such book。 It claims to be about economics， stock market， bitcoin， and how narratives play a role in them， but why is there so much content about psychology， epidemiology， pop culture and so on。 The moment I picked it up again a few days ago， it hit me。 Having a bit of experience in playing in the stock market since then， now I can appreciate how important narratives are。 One immaterial adverse news can An unusual book。 I started this last year and didn't understand， what's the point of writing such book。 It claims to be about economics， stock market， bitcoin， and how narratives play a role in them， but why is there so much content about psychology， epidemiology， pop culture and so on。 The moment I picked it up again a few days ago， it hit me。 Having a bit of experience in playing in the stock market since then， now I can appreciate how important narratives are。 One immaterial adverse news can drive 'hot' stocks one way or the other。 After all， narrative is what drives price movements。 Imagine how interesting would it be if you can track price movements based on what everyone talks about， what everyone searches on Google， or the kind of morality talk religious leaders speak in sermons。It's clever and rigorous。 Maybe not so much useful for short term market activity but surely it's going to be able to track large-scale movements if done correctly and in large enough scale。 There's much interesting discussions too about various narratives that drive price and stock market movements in previous crises - 1973， 1929， 1907， 1920-21， 1890s， and so on。 。。。more

Rem71090 ，

I enjoyed this book more than I thought I would at the beginning - but I would have liked to see a little more about how narratives should be studied or thought about instead of descriptions of the narratives。 It’s also a little strange to me how much of this book relies on ProQuest - but it is a very approachable book for people outside of academic settings！

Matthew ，

Interesting information but text was highly compartmentalized in separate chapters which disrupted the flow of the writing and made reading （and understanding） more difficult。 For example， early he in book author writes about bitcoin and compares it to bimetallism -- but he doesn't define and explain bimetallism for several more chapters。 While， the book does a good job of showing how narratives， whether true or false， can drive economic gains and losses -- the author never really pulls it all t Interesting information but text was highly compartmentalized in separate chapters which disrupted the flow of the writing and made reading （and understanding） more difficult。 For example， early he in book author writes about bitcoin and compares it to bimetallism -- but he doesn't define and explain bimetallism for several more chapters。 While， the book does a good job of showing how narratives， whether true or false， can drive economic gains and losses -- the author never really pulls it all together to show a reader how this can be effective in day to day life only kind of after the fact。 Like how everyone believing （incorrectly） housing prices can only go up， presaged the Great Recession but understanding that fact even at the time， wouldn't necessarily have led average investors to shun collateralized debt obligations。 。。。more

Matthew M ，

Started off strong。 Love and agree with the narrative driver thesis。 I thought the examples of historic narratives was well researched and deep， but by the back third it felt like it was being dragged out a bit。 Still， another very enjoyable and approachable book by Schiller。

Ben Casley ，

Enjoyable， thoughtful， interesting concept。I believe we will hear more about this field going forward， seems like it is still in its infancy。Shiller argues that narratives drive economic behavior， however it wasn't discussed whether these narratives came about due to actual changes in the economy。 I。E what comes first， the chicken or the egg。This is somewhat addressed as he discusses common narratives that tend to come in and out of fashion， much like a business cycle。 Some of these narratives i Enjoyable， thoughtful， interesting concept。I believe we will hear more about this field going forward， seems like it is still in its infancy。Shiller argues that narratives drive economic behavior， however it wasn't discussed whether these narratives came about due to actual changes in the economy。 I。E what comes first， the chicken or the egg。This is somewhat addressed as he discusses common narratives that tend to come in and out of fashion， much like a business cycle。 Some of these narratives include central bank stability， the gold standard， consumer confidence， evil labor unions and machines are taking our jobs。Some of these we hear about today， but Shiller highlights that its not the first time。 Many of these issues come up on and off throughout history， and spread like a pandemic。 Shiller looks to address what makes a story go viral， using an example from today， Bitcoin。It was interesting to read examples， quotes， extracts from the early and mid 1900's discussing different issues like we face today， giving confidence that none of these issues haven't been faced before。This was a good start， will read more as the field continues to grow， it is a good extension of behavioral economics， which I am a fan of。 。。。more

SeaShore ，

One thing is that we’re going to appreciate the threat of contagion and epidemics。 Influenza comes every year， and causes thousands of deaths， but we don’t think much about it。 We have to understand that epidemics are very hard to predict， even for seasoned epidemiologists， and the contagion rate is highly variable。 Now we have to worry about coronavirus mutating， and becoming even more deadly than it already is。It’s the same thing with contagious economic narratives。 There are powerful narrati One thing is that we’re going to appreciate the threat of contagion and epidemics。 Influenza comes every year， and causes thousands of deaths， but we don’t think much about it。 We have to understand that epidemics are very hard to predict， even for seasoned epidemiologists， and the contagion rate is highly variable。 Now we have to worry about coronavirus mutating， and becoming even more deadly than it already is。It’s the same thing with contagious economic narratives。 There are powerful narratives in America， that we should live large， and enhance our image， and be seen as big spenders。 That may have helped boost the economy， but that narrative is tarnished now。 With the panic， now people are thinking that they might lose their jobs， or face high medical expenses – and we’re just not prepared for it。 Robert Shiller at Reuters 2020When a message goes viral， it will have an effect on people and cause change。 He used various narratives through History that impacted society and hopes that this could help， through forecasting， to predict events。 We need to incorporate the contagion of narratives into economic theory。 A story may also be a song， joke， theory， explanation or plan that has emotional resonance and that can easily be conveyed in casual conversation。Narrative economics demonstrates how popular stories change through time to affect economic outcomes including recessions and depressions， but also other important economic phenomena。 John Maynard Keynes was a narrative economist。 。。。more

Masatoshi Nishimura ，

The book is full of anecdotal stories。 You may find them interesting to follow。 The premise of the book is to say economics has much human emotion and irrationality aspect。As for me， I came through this book for a predictive value。 For example， is coronavirus leading to depressive economics or government pumping in offsetting our negative emotion？ How can I analyze that from reading "current" news objectively？ To my disappointment， Robert doesn't offer that predictive toolset。 The book is full of anecdotal stories。 You may find them interesting to follow。 The premise of the book is to say economics has much human emotion and irrationality aspect。As for me， I came through this book for a predictive value。 For example， is coronavirus leading to depressive economics or government pumping in offsetting our negative emotion？ How can I analyze that from reading "current" news objectively？ To my disappointment， Robert doesn't offer that predictive toolset。 。。。more

Nils ，

Schon faszinierend zu beobachten， wie Ökonomen bemerken， dass es eine Welt außerhalb ihrer Modelle gibt und wie sie dann im Handstreich versuchen， alle Probleme auf einmal zu behandeln。 Dabei überblicken sie die Komplexität ihres Vorhabens nicht ansatzweise - zumal andere Geistes- und Gesellschaftswissenschaften seit Jahrzehnten mit genau diesen Problemen ringen und teilweise bereits deutlich weiter sind。

Reference

google book https://www.google.com/search?tbm=bks&q=Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events

hathitrust digital library https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/ls?q1=Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events&field1=ocr&a=srchls&ft=ft&lmt=ft

The British Library https://bll01.primo.exlibrisgroup.com/discovery/search?query=any,contains,Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events&tab=LibraryCatalog&search_scope=Not_BL_Suppress&vid=44BL_INST:BLL01&lang=en&offset=0