Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment

Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment

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  • Create Date:2021-04-08 13:51:16
  • Update Date:2025-09-14
  • Status:finish
  • Author:Daniel Kahneman
  • ISBN:0008308993
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Summary

From the bestselling author of Thinking, Fast and Slow, the co-author of Nudge, and the author of You Are About to Make a Terrible Mistake! comes Noise, a groundbreaking exploration of why people make bad judgments, and how to control both noise and cognitive bias。​

Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients — or that two judges in the same courthouse give different sentences to people who have committed the same crime。 Suppose that different food inspectors give different ratings to indistinguishable restaurants — or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to be handling the particular complaint。 Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same inspector, or the same company official makes different decisions, depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday。 These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical。

In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R。 Sunstein show how noise helps produce errors in many fields, including medicine, law, public health, economic forecasting, food safety, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews and and personnel selection。 And although noise can be found wherever people make judgments and decisions, individuals and organizations alike commonly ignore to its role in their judgments and in their actions。 They show “noise neglect。” With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions。

Packed with new ideas, and drawing on the same kind of diligent, insightful research that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment — and what we can do about it。

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Reviews

Michael Perkins

The authors published an article in the HBR that explains their thesis for this book。https://hbr。org/2016/10/noise The authors published an article in the HBR that explains their thesis for this book。https://hbr。org/2016/10/noise 。。。more

Angie Boyter

Noise is bad no matter where in life we find it。 In their new book Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass Sunstein say there is too much of it in our judgments and explain how noise arises and what might be done about it。 “Judgment” is not “thinking”。The book defines “judgment” as “a form of measurement in which the instrument is a human mind。” Judgments may be less than optimal due to bias, which is systematic deviation from optimal, e。g。the group’s predictions are ALWAYS overly optimistic, Noise is bad no matter where in life we find it。 In their new book Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass Sunstein say there is too much of it in our judgments and explain how noise arises and what might be done about it。 “Judgment” is not “thinking”。The book defines “judgment” as “a form of measurement in which the instrument is a human mind。” Judgments may be less than optimal due to bias, which is systematic deviation from optimal, e。g。the group’s predictions are ALWAYS overly optimistic, or noise, which is a more random scatter。 The main topic of the book is “system noise”, which is “unwanted variability in judgments that should ideally be identical。” (I should get the same jail sentence no matter which judge hears my case。) System noise has two main components。 There is level noise ( A particular judge is lenient in granting bail。) and pattern noise。 Pattern noise also has two components: stable pattern noise, (Such as a tendency to give women lighter jail terms), and occasion noise ( I just had a run-in with my boss)。。 The book discusses each of these types of noise and their psychological aspects, drawing on earlier work such as Sunstein’s “nudge” and Kahneman’s “System 1 and 2” thinking。 Readers who are not somewhat familiar with this work might find a quick google search helpful。 There is also some discussion of the statistics involved that I suspect will be cryptic to most people who do not already know a bit about statistics。 If so, you can certainly ignore the math。So once you know sources of noise in judgment, what do you do about it? The authors describe some remedies, such as a “noise audit” or a “decision observer” to help remove bias from judgments in groups or a judicious use of rules or standards。There is a lot of good and thought-provoking insight in Noise, principles that everyone will recognize once they are pointed out but that interfere with good judgment unless we identify and address them。 The authors show how to do this with extensive descriptions of judgments in a number of fields, like selecting new hires, setting bail or sentences in criminal cases, and medical decisions。 As a result, this is rather a long book, and these descriptions can be skimmed if you are very focused on task, but they are interesting。 The applications described in this book are primarily decisions made by multiple people, whether they be judges setting bail or group recommendations on whether a company should acquire another company。 It does not focus much on decisions people might make in their personal lives, but the principles certainly seem applicable there as well。 I am sure the authors would recommend that I not review this book just before lunch and after an argument with my spouse!Insightful analysis of why we make bad judgments 。。。more

James Hammer

Good Book。 It was interesting to read as now I learn a lot about different noises and their influence on the health of people after I've read this article https://silencewiki。com/noise-basics/。。。 Good Book。 It was interesting to read as now I learn a lot about different noises and their influence on the health of people after I've read this article https://silencewiki。com/noise-basics/。。。 。。。more